Many of the issues being discussed about CFSD this election cycle come down to an individual voter’s personal beliefs. However, one area that seems much more cut and dry is the district’s performance on math assessments. Some have expressed concern about the district’s decline in this area, suggesting that it is indicative of broader problems and that CFSD is failing its students.
But is that really the case? (Spoiler: No, it’s not. If you don’t want to read this whole thing, skip to the bottom for a summary).
Objectively, one fact cannot be argued: there has indeed been an 18% decline in math performance since 2018. The numbers are right here and reflect a 2018 high of 71% proficiency and a 2023 score of 58% proficiency.
Of course, we never want to see student performance decline, especially in something as fundamentally important as mathematics. No one would claim this is a good thing!
However, there are two ways to react to a graph like this. The incorrect reaction is to declare that the district must be failing its students and that wholesale change is needed to right a sinking ship. This is called confirmation bias: the tendency to interpret data in a way that confirms your existing beliefs rather than applying objective analysis to determine root causes. In other words, if you believe that CFSD is failing its students, this would appear to be evidence in support of that.
A more appropriate reaction to the above graph is to question why that decline might be happening and how to understand these numbers in a broader context. This is where things get interesting, at least for us data-oriented folks. (If that’s not you, skip to the TL;DR at the bottom).
The first question we might ask is what that grey bar on the graph (see above) is all about. Yep, that's our old friend COVID. Even though the pandemic is now in our rear view mirror, it had a lasting impact on math performance. That’s because math skills build on each other, and a setback in one year will carry forward to future years. Our district has of course taken steps to mitigate this, but COVID’s impact is undeniable. The state’s own report card acknowledges this with a note: The grey bar that appears on this graph indicates potential impact from the COVID-19 pandemic which may impact how trends can be evaluated.
But wait. If COVID is to blame, and COVID impacted all schools, doesn’t that mean we would see a similar decline across the state? Yes, and in fact we see exactly that. From 2018 to 2023, the statewide results show a 19% decline in math performance, in line with CFSD’s 18% decline. (Curious folks can follow the same link above and view results for the entire state in addition to district-level data).
So this 18% decline, while certainly not desirable, is clearly the result of a more universal issue rather than being a symptom of CFSD’s alleged decline.
Eagle-eyed readers probably also noticed that the decline actually happened between 2018 and 2021. The only reason to use 2018 as the starting point is to exaggerate the size of the decline. What if we looked only at post-COVID results starting in 2021? Why, then we would see a gradual increase in scores, and that doesn’t fit the narrative of a struggling district.
But wait, there’s more!
In addition to looking at trends, it's helpful to look at benchmarks. We scored 58%, but is that good or bad? Obviously the top score is 100%, but is that even realistic? For context, on a statewide basis that same proficiency metric for 2023 is 34%, or 24 percentage points lower than CFSD. So CFSD clearly outperforms the state average.
Let’s stop here and acknowledge a bit of privilege, though. CFSD is a unique district, both in terms of its suburban location and its high household income. So while statewide comparisons can be interesting, and certainly flattering for CFSD, they may not always be fair. Ideally we would have a better benchmark we could use to assess CFSD’s performance.
Here again, a little bit of curiosity and some digging goes a long way. Enter Arizona’s Auditor General, a division of state government that describes their role as: “We help government work better by analyzing governmental operations and recommending improvements.” This includes public schools, and the Auditor General completes their own analysis of academic performance to determine if public school districts are good stewards of taxpayer funds. Let’s see what they have to say.
To account for inequities across districts, the Auditor General created peer districts, grouping together districts with similar characteristics so that their academic and financial performance can be evaluated against more accurate benchmarks. When we compare CFSD to its peer groups, here’s what we learn:
Not only do we outperform the state average, we outperform our district’s peer group by ten percentage points! Furthermore, the highest-scoring unified public school district in Arizona garnered a 60% in math performance, only two points above CFSD's score.
We see similar patterns for ELA and Science performance, where CFSD leads both the state and its peer group.
Based on this analysis, it’s clear that the alarmist “18% decline in math scores since 2018” talking point quickly falls apart when put under scrutiny. CFSD continues to provide its students with exceptional academic instruction in Math, English, and Science and the results are clear to see.
Does that mean we are okay with that 58% number and don't see the need for improvement? Absolutely not! And in fact, CFSD is hardly resting on its laurels. Earlier this year, the district completed a comprehensive analysis of its math curriculum and is implementing changes designed to improve student performance and preparedness during key transition points across grade levels. The assessment, recommendations, and plans were presented publicly at board meetings earlier this year. If you, dear reader, have a passion for curriculum review, check the posted board meeting agendas at https://www.cfsd16.org/about-us/governing-board to learn when these topics are being discussed so that you can attend in person or online.
Furthermore, Superintendent Bartlett recently announced performance goals that included additional assessments of academic performance with the goal of identifying and addressing performance gaps.
We are proud to be part of a district that delivers an excellent academic education to its students!
TL;DR: The 18% decline in math performance is not a sign of a struggling district. The decline is mirrored statewide and is likely a ripple effect from COVID. CFSD strongly outperforms both the state average and a state-designated peer group of districts in math and other subjects. CFSD continues to find ways to innovate and improve its math curriculum to better serve students.
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